The Humanities and the Dynamics of Inclusion since World War II
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However, the near simultaneous collapse of oil prices revealed that Russia had failed, once again, to create a modern economy out of the flow of money when oil prices were high. During periods of weakness, Russia historically has tried to compensate by focusing on its external power. This has led it to engage in the Middle East. In the Middle East, the story is simple. They were artificial nation-states in the first place, which is why only dictators could control them. Second, the underlying culture of the region, Islam, is replacing the secularly oriented political culture shaped by the British.
The new Middle East is dissolving and it is being replaced by an old one. China is experiencing the same type of slowdown that Japan did around The idea that China could indefinitely continue to experience the growth of the last 30 years was irrational. But it was irrational not only for structural reasons , but because hundreds of millions of Chinese have participated very little in the economic growth and now know that they never will.
The coastal region, which has participated, resists the transfer of wealth to the interior. The interior demands rectification. The danger here is that China will return to the regionalism it experienced from the late s to To avoid that, China is imposing a dictatorship along with a purge. China is struggling to keep the pre-war regionalism from re-emerging. Each major Eurasian region is in crisis.
The Humanities and the Dynamics of Inclusion since World War II
Each crisis is different. But all of the regions have destabilized.
They have done so in different ways and to different degrees. We are not anywhere near an all-inclusive war, and we may never get there, but the entire landmass is off balance with social and economic problems, dramatic internal political shifts and in some regions, military conflicts. It is clear that we are entering a fundamental shift in how the world works. The world differs in this sense. Prior to the world wars, the United States was one of the nations seeking a shift in the international system.
The old establishment in Europe was struggling to hold on. Today the United States has become the anchor of the established international order.
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It has the only military with global reach. It is pulled into all problems in one role or another. China, Russia and even Europe want U. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States became the only global power. It anticipated a period of pleasant self-absorption. It failed to solve the problem of Islamist terrorism. The United States has since shifted from a strategy of intervention with main force to very light interventions , relying on powers in the region to manage the major burden. It is impossible for the U.
Its power is great, but it is not omnipotent. Nor is every conflict in the world an American issue. Therefore, the United States is moving to a position in which it manages regional balances of power and intrudes much more lightly than before. This is not isolationism, but the adoption of the British and Roman models of rare and limited interventions and support for regional powers to maintain balance.
Before the U. With the sudden collapse of France, the U. It intervened, but only on the periphery of the battle, in North Africa, Italy and the Pacific. It intervened directly against Germany, identified as the main adversary, at Normandy in , when it brought its main force to bear, less than a year before the end of the war.
It used its industrial base to support Britain and the Soviet Union, with the Soviets executing the major fighting. The American disengagement from Eurasia puts the U. It relies on regional balances to either contain or fight regional conflicts.
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It provides military aid, economic assistance and limited military forces to help. And it reserves major intervention for extreme situations and at the last practical moment. The rest of the world expects American involvement, but in the new era it will come in a very different form. The instability takes different forms and has not reached a critical stage. These conflicts have not flowed into a single conflagration, but have begun to interact. The single most dangerous factor is that there are no apparent arrestors.
There are no clear forces that can stop the fighting in the Middle East, the EU internal crisis, the Russian economic and strategic crisis or the Chinese political, social and economic crises. Without arrestors, the crises will continue and intensify. Therefore, the only reasonable conclusion is that we are seeing a mounting crisis in Eurasia. Should it continue, it will mean a reconfiguration of this region, as it was reconfigured by World War II.
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